VOJIN JOKSIMOVICH

Kosovo Secessions: 2006--No, 2007--No, 2008—Uncertain 

Part I: 2006 and 2007 Secessions 

Pierre Marti, a Belgian economist, convinced me that the term independence used by the Western governments and the mainstream media should be dropped in favor of secession. He wrote: “ Independence is not something that can be merely proclaimed; it is something that can and must only be achieved...The Albanian minority of Serbia may proclaim the secession of Kosovo and Metohija; however, it will not achieve independence at any time in foreseeable future. First, the Albanian minority of Serbia is not a sovereign people: It is an irredentist diaspora of the Republic of Albania, honoring that country's flag, national day, and a political vision of a greater Albania . Second, it is only because the Albanian minority of Serbia is living in a part of Serbia under foreign occupation that it can dream of separating the occupied province from the country of which it is a part. Third, even if the occupying forces withdraw as soon as secession is proclaimed by these immigrants and recognized by the occupying countries, this territory is simply not viable on its own and will remain dependent on a capital other than Belgrade for its economy, energy, food, defense and education (at the very least) whether this capital will be Tirana, Ankara, Brussels or Washington.” Serbian Prime Minister (PM) Vojislav Kostunica correctly stated that Kosovo would be a “puppet” of the U.S. and NATO.

The aspirations of Albanian separatisms, illustrated well through three Leagues of Prizren, date back to 1878 during the Berlin Congress. In order to accomplish their separatist goal the Albanians have developed the “imperialism of the small” approach, i.e. reliance on a superpower being the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Mussolini's Italy, Tito's Communism and now the U.S.-led NATO These historical aspects are discussed in my book Kosovo Crisis: A Study in Foreign Policy Mismanagement. This three part essay focuses primarily on the last two and half years. Part I provides a summary of salient events leading to 2006 and 2007 attempts by the U.S.-led NATO countries to create a second Albania in Europe on 15% of the territory of democratic Serbia and its cradle of national history. Part II provides insights and an analysis following failure of negotiations mediated by the troika: U.S./EU/Russia leading into early 2008 viewed as the decision-making season. Part III attempts to answer a burning question regarding the enigma behind the U.S. policies in the Balkans. 

2006 Separatism 

The UN, the EU, the Contact Group ( U.S. , UK , France, Germany and Italy ), the U.S. , the UK and others were on record declaring that in 2006 a final status decision for Kosovo must be reached. It became obvious that the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) failed to transform Kosovo into a society in which all citizens could live in dignity and security. It was an impossible task since the Albanian culture is clan-based and only a vast cultural shift over a generation or two could have led to a law abiding society. In 2003, a UN police spokesperson said that Kosovo “is not a society affected by organized crime, but a society founded on organized crime.” A good illustration is March 17, 2004 pogrom or Kosovo Kristallnacht. This onslaught was an organized, widespread and targeted campaign. Minority areas were targeted, sending a message that minorities and returnees were not welcome in Kosovo. It was a targeted effort to drive out Kosovo Serbs and other minorities like Roma and to destroy the social fabric of their existence in Kosovo. Not only that multiculturism died but genocide took place on UNMIK/NATO watch as documented in Hiding Genocide in Kosovo, a book by an UNMIK insider, Iseult Henry.

Two individuals, Iain King and Whit Mason who also served with UNMIK, describe in their book Peace at any Price: How the World Failed Kosovo why, despite an unprecedented commitment of resources, UNMIK supported by NATO failed. In 2005 a special UN envoy Norwegian Kai Eide submitted a status report to the UNSC in which he said “Interethnic relations remained bad, biggest threat to the future of Kosovo...Little has been achieved to create foundation of a multiethnic society...Property rights are neither respected nor ensured...Illegal construction and occupation of homes is a widespread phenomenon.” More recently the European Commission report stated: “Corruption, weak institutions and violation of human rights are commonplace...The ethnic tensions are still high, while the paramilitary formations are giving their best to resemble and arm themselves.” All in all, a dysfunctional society that is anything but prepared for independence.

The U.S-led international community was unwilling to seriously confront the Albanian thugs. The risk aversion culture prevailed. Who was responsible for this miserable state of affairs? The answer is nobody in New York , Washington or the Western European capitals. So having created a royal mess, the Western powers have been looking for a way out. A stampede to “finish the job” was initiated by the UN Security Council (UNSC) on October 24, 2005 abandoning the centerpiece of the UNMIK program of satisfying eight EU human rights standards before status. Former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari was appointed as the special UN envoy to “mediate” the interethnic conflict. Person with his background was the wrong man for the job from day one. At one point he even suggested to the Belgrade negotiators that “Serbs are guilty as people.” His mediation was a farce. Kosovo is one of the most complex situations comparable to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as both sides claim the same piece of real estate. Instead Ahtisaari worked diligently to deliver what the Western powers wanted: the roadmap for Kosovo independence to be imposed on Serbia via a new UN resolution to supersede UN Resolution #1244 which calls for sovereignty (sovereignty mentioned three times) and search for a solution (no mention of independence).

The International Crisis Group (ICG) and other Serb-bashers have predicted that the international community will grant independence to the Albanians before the year-end.

Numerous columns in the Western Serb-bashing media predicted the same. Kosovo “independence” became another test of political correctness. Even in Belgrade doom and gloom atmosphere prevailed. Some argued that Kosmet was lost when Tito allowed uncontrolled migration from Albania . Some argued that it was lost when Serbs sold their houses to Albanians. Some argued that it was lost when Milosevic abolished the 1974 Autonomy and rolled it back to the 1963 level and when he ousted Albanian leaders from running the province. Some argued that it was lost when NATO bombed Serbia in 1999. Finally, some argued that it was lost when the post-Milosevic democratic governments failed to secure powerful allies in the West. A big factor was intimidation by the U.S. and lack of courage by the Serbian leaders to confront the only world superpower.

However, on June 28 PM Kostunica announced that Kosmet (Kosovo and Metohija) was an integral part of Serbia and will remain so. On September 30 the Serbian Parliament adopted a new constitution that declared Kosmet to be inalienable part of Serbia . This was a shrewd delaying tactic on behalf of the PM. The U.S.-led stampede was halted. Ahtisaari still planed to come up with a proposal for supervised independence before the year end. The West assumed it needed only to persuade Serbia to acquiesce without a big fight, so all sides had a soft-landing. However, the Russians have compelled Ahtisaari first to deliver the proposal to Belgrade and Pristina before submitting it to the UNSC. The painful process was extended into 2007.

2007 Separatism

Overwhelming pessimism in Serbia was replaced with a cautious not all is lost attitude.

Russian President Putin's blunt warning, at the February 2007 Munich Security Conference that Russia would not agree to any Kosovo settlement that Belgrade opposed, provided a major boost. In Washington and Brussels there was a feeling that Putin was bluffing and essentially no planning took place in case Putin meant it. It was a policy of “eyes wide shut” attitude. The Russian support was not only based on Slavic friendship, although it was a factor, but on own national interests including the economic ones. The Russian Orthodox Church fully supported Serbia . If Kosovo were to become independent how would Russia explain to the leaders of South Ossetia , Abkhazia and Transdnester why the situation in Kosovo is as unique as the West has been advocating.

On March 26, 2007 Ahtisaari submitted his report to the UNSC recommending Kosovo independence supervised by the EU with continued presence of NATO troops on the ground. Needless to say, supervision and independence are concepts, which exclude each other. Ahtisaari went as far as stating that independence for Kosovo is the “only viable option.” This became a mantra amongst clueless Washington and Brussels policy makers. The U.S./UK/France/Germany jumped on the Ahtisaari plan and drafted a UN resolution which would have annulled the UN #1244 and thus detached Kosovo from Serbia . The third draft filed on June 20 proposed the postponement of supervised independence for 120 days, the time given for negotiations to take place with automatic imposition of the Ahtisaari plan if the parties couldn't agree. In Belgrade and Moscow this proposal was dead on arrival. Russia opposed artificial deadlines and automatism and Serbia was not interested in the negotiations with predetermined outcome. The resolution did not come for a vote in the UNSC as Russia declared its intention to veto it. Other nations represented on the UNSC such as China , Indonesia and South Africa believed that the rule of law should be the keystone of the international order which would be grossly violated if Kosovo independence would be established on 15% of the Serbian territory. In addition, Russia 's Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov suggested Ahtisaari unfitness to mediate further talks based on reports that Albanian mafia bribed him. The German BND, German Intelligence Service, sent the documentation to the UN Secretary General that he took the bribe from the Albanian mafia. The State Department was unable to deny Ahtisaari corruption charges.

In August negotiations were launched with mediation by the Contact Group negotiating troika: U.S./EU/Russia with a deadline for a report to be submitted to the UN Secretary General by

December 10. The mediators Frank Wisner, Wolfgang Ischinger and Alexander Botsan-

Harchenko, representing the U.S. , EU and Russia respectively, were tasked with getting the Serbs and Albanians to agree on Kosovo's future status. The troika will now report that the negotiations have failed after the last session at Baden, an Austrian spa town near Vienna , November 26-28. The U.S. and the EU stated that the mediation ends but Russia insists on further negotiations. Serbian PM said: “We would have a duty to agree to resume the talks and establish a new negotiating process....no one should have any doubt that we will annul any unilateral act, and treat unilateral independence as a null, void and non-binding phenomenon...Serbia will not let an inch of its territory be taken away.”

German Suddeutsche Zeitung wrote: “Wolfgang Ischinger failed...due to the intransigence

of Albanians. They want only one thing: independence...None of the suggestions the Serbs

made during the 120-day negotiations had the slightest chance. Why should the Albanians

settle for autonomy when George W. Bush had already promised them their own state?”

While visiting Albania in June 2007 Bush declared that “sooner rather than later you've got to say enough is enough, Kosovo independent.” Bush wants a puppet state with NATO having the ultimate authority. Opening of a Pandora's Box with consequences for Europe and the world are essentially ignored.

Hashim Thaci, former KLA leader with blood on his hands known as “Snake” and Kosovo's next prime minister said: “We can negotiate for 100 years with Serbia but for the independence of Kosovo we can have no compromise.” Despite turnout of only 43% in the November 17 elections, Thaci had audacity to proudly proclaim that “the citizens of Kosovo sent the world a message...that Kosovo is ready for independence.” Guardian wrote: “In response, Europe 's warnings against a unilateral declaration of independence finally became audible, with Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt speculating that:' I don't think they (Kosovo Albanians) want to be independent from the international community.'” Italian PM Romano Prodi urged Albanians to delay their declaration as the EU nations have made progress on reaching common stance. That stance would be irreplaceably destroyed if there were hasty decisions. Even a strong backer of Kosovo independence Albanian PM Sali Berisha went along. Despite all the prior rhetoric, Kosovo Albanians have to comply with wishes of their backers.

Having visited Belgrade and Pristina on December 3, the mediators sent the report to the UN Secretary General on December 7. The document is supposed to be fact-finding with no conclusions and recommendations because the U.S. and Russia have different standpoints. The UNSC meets on December 19. Russia will continue to support a law-based decision if it suits both sides. Russian UN ambassador Churkin stated: “The talks revealed that a solution is possible.” In that light, Russia will be calling for a continuation of negotiations and will be circulating elements for a Security Council statement. If on the hand the U.S./UK, perhaps with support from France , decide to revamp their June resolution, Russia in all likelihood would veto it. There probably would be double veto by China , which has very valid reasons bearing in mind own cases of Taiwan , Tibet and Xinjiang. Compromises, like replacement of the UN civil administration by the EU, are possible. Hence 2007 ends with another stalemate much like 2006 did.